Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.
By: Ted Seifried, senior broker at Zaner Group.
Corn Catches a Nice Bounce Off of Lows (written 5/15)
July corn closed over 25 cents off of the recent low placed on Friday. Pressure late last week came mainly due to good weather, fast planting and a bearish USDA report. Last Thursday, in a surprise move, the USDA gave us an old crop corn balance sheet that saw a 50 million bushel increase in ending stocks. This came as a surprise because none of the private estimates had the USDA raising ending stocks. The USDA may have chosen to do this because they see an early planting as an indicator of a likely early harvest which could bring supply to the marketplace sooner then normal. Regardless of the reason it seems that the USDA has drawn a line in the sand at 801 million bushels for the 2011/2012 carry over.
This could mean that we have seen the most bullish old crop USDA report for the rest of the current marketing season. Also, with good weather and fast planting, bullish fundamental news events may be few and far between. However, we still haveChina. Today there were rumors ofChinabuying circulating the floor and we saw a positive outlook come back into the market. The other bullish factor out there is that even though we have the corn (at least the USDA says so) it seems that producers are holding tight for now. As I took a poll this morning of my clients it came to find out that on average guys were holding 20% in the bin and not looking to sell soon. This can an likely will be very supportive to basis and provide strength to the futures as well. This could provide good selling opportunities on weather scares but, the dilemma is where will we be rallying from on a weather scare. If good weather, a strong US dollar and weak outside markets break July corn into the lower $5.00 level then a $.40 rally on a weather scare doesn’t do much good even with a strengthening basis. I believe holding our current low ($5.72 in July corn) is key to holding and looking for a weather scare. If that low is violated then it may be time to move some cash corn.
See December Corn Daily chart:
This means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to make sure they lock up prices that makes sense for their bottom line. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the strategies that I am currently using.
In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent.
Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs.
Ted Seifried (321) 277-0113 or tseifried@zaner.com
Call Ted Seifried at (312) 277-0113
or e-mail him at tseifried@zaner.com
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Additional charts, studies, and commentary can be found at Markethead.com.
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View my thoughts on other markets at Ted Seifried Futures Trading Strategies blog.
Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
- Rick Alexander’s Corn futures commentary (5/16)
- Judy Crawford’s Corn futures Market Update (5/16)
- USDA Crop Report Quick View (5/10)
- Soybean Meal futures show a fresh buy signal (5/10)
- Rick Alexander’s Financial futures commentary (5/16)
- Heating Oil & Gasoline RBOB show sell signals (5/14)
- Rick Alexander’s Meat futures commentary (5/16)
- Metal complex tumbles, Gold futures generate a sell signal (5/11)
- Judy Crawford’s Currency futures Market Update (5/16)
- Live Cattle & Feeder Cattle futures give buy signals (5/15)
- Judy Crawford’s Stock Index futures Market Update (5/16)
- Cotton #2 futures show a fresh sell signal (5/16)
- Rick Alexander’s Energy futures commentary (5/16)
- Markethead: Quotes, charts, news, commentary and more
Rick Alexander’s Corn futures commentary (5/18)
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.
By: Rick Alexander, senior broker at Zaner Group.
CORN: 5/18/12 THE ELECTRONIC GRAIN HOURS WILL BE EXTENTED TO FROM 5:00 PM THROUGH 2:00PM CST DUE TO NEW COMPETITION FROM THE ICE EXCHANGE. THIS WILL START ON SUNDAY EVENING MAY 20TH at 5:00PM. Higher close yesterday for corn futures. CORN HAD BEEN RANGE BOUND BETWEEN 590 AND 685, BASIS, THE JULY CONTRACT, SINCE THE BEGINING OF OCTOBER but settled below 600 on May 10th. Now corn has rallied from 572 1/4 up to 626 1/2 in just four trading sessions helped by possible Chinese buying of corn. Today, it had its best close in twelve sessions as shown below. There still is, however, is very good resistance overhead as where the July contract stalled out before. For additional customizable charts and quotes visit Markethead.com for a FREE, no-obligation 30 day subscription. SELL SIGNAL FOR CORN FUTURES. CALL FOR DETAILS AT (312) 277-0107 OR EMAIL ralexander@zaner.com!
Rick Alexander
(312) 277-0107
ralexander@zaner.com
Zaner Group
Subscribe FREE to Zaner Group’s Daily Research Newsletter.
Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.